Trump will demand Russia-Ukraine peace talks if elected, says Orbán

Good morning. We start with an exclusive story: Donald Trump will quickly demand peace talks between Russia and Ukraine if he wins November’s US presidential election and has developed “well-founded plans” for doing so, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has claimed after private discussions with the Republican candidate.

That prospect means the EU should reopen direct diplomatic communication with Russia and start “high-level” negotiations with China to find a peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine, the Hungarian prime minister said in a private letter to EU leaders following consultations in Moscow and Beijing.

Orbán also said in the letter that on the basis of his recent discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the “general observation” was “that the intensity of the military conflict will radically escalate in the near future”. Henry Foy has more from Brussels.

• Running mate: Trump has chosen JD Vance to be his vice-presidential nominee. The Ohio senator is an intelligent and forceful exponent of the Maga movement, and maybe also its future, writes Ed Luce.

• Trump’s trials: A US judge has dismissed a criminal case over the former president’s handling of classified documents, ruling that the appointment of a special counsel had violated the US constitution.

• Waning influence: The magic of democracy lies in its capacity for renewal and self-correction, writes Ivan Krastev. In this respect, neither a Biden nor a Trump victory looks like a date with the future.

Here’s what I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: Italy has its June consumer price index, ZEW releases its German economic sentiment index, the US publishes retail sales data and the IMF issues its World Economic Outlook update.

• Ecofin: EU finance ministers meet in Brussels, joined by ECB board member Luis de Guindos.

• Results: ​Bank of America, Charles Schwab, ​Morgan Stanley, ​PNC Financial Services Group, ​State Street and Ocado report.

Five more top stories

1. The far-left faction of the alliance that won the most seats in France’s parliamentary elections suspended talks with its partners yesterday after failing to agree on a candidate for prime minister. The hastily formed alliance, which includes the far-left La France Insoumise, the Greens and the more moderate Socialist and Communist parties, had hoped to build on its election success by forming a government. Here’s what the impasse could mean for the alliance and other parties.

2. Public support is growing in South Korea for the country to develop its own nuclear arsenal amid rising concerns about deepening defence co-operation between North Korea and Russia and the possibility of a second Donald Trump presidency. Sixty-six per cent of respondents in a survey expressed “support” or “strong support” for an independent nuclear deterrent, an increase of 6 percentage points from last year.

3. Bill Ackman has told potential investors in the fund he is working to take public that his prolific social media presence will help the vehicle trade at a premium valuation. The billionaire’s Pershing Square USA also plans to have a Warren Buffett-like annual meeting to connect with investors. Read the full report.

4. The European Union is using incorrect data for a far-reaching initiative to ban imports from deforested land, Australia and Brazil have alleged, as they step up demands for a delay to a new regime that comes into force on December 31. Several countries contend that the EU could unilaterally bar imports of palm oil, leather and coffee from areas that should be exempt.

5. Southern Water has awarded its chief a £183,000 bonus even as the company proposed a 73 per cent rise in customer bills, the biggest increase of all English water providers. The company was also criticised by regulators for a business plan that did not meet “minimum” standards. Gill Plimmer has more.

The Big Read

The EU says its pioneering Artificial Intelligence Act, which formally comes into force in August, will protect humans from AI’s dangers. But critics say it is undercooked and might end up burdening start-ups with red tape and compliance costs, and stifle innovation in the tech industry.

We’re also reading . . . 

Chart of the day

Intel’s venture capital arm has emerged as one of the most active foreign investors in Chinese AI and semiconductor start-ups, raising alarm in Washington. The stakebuilding comes even as the $147bn chipmaker receives billions of dollars from the US government to fund a technological arms race with Beijing. Read more on Intel Capital’s Chinese investments.

Take a break from the news

Sustainability-driven superchef Simon Rogan grows most of his restaurants’ produce on his farmstead in the Lake District, which this summer is offering a tasty peek behind the scenes at its workings.

Additional contributions from Benjamin Wilhelm and Gordon Smith