By Guilherme de Queiroz-Stein for Brasil de Fato
Any concession to a “parallel depend” of the 2022 elections by the Armed Forces poses an incredible threat to democracy. Firstly, it have to be made clear that this isn’t a “parallel depend”, however an estimate of electoral outcomes, which, if carried out by sampling, will in all probability attain outcomes which can be totally different from the official depend, even inside a margin of error.
Within the worst case situation, the place the pattern calculation is completed improperly, the parallel estimate may attain utterly distorted numbers. In each eventualities, they may have an effect on the credibility of the electoral system. Moreover, it’s completely pointless, and an innocuous expenditure of public sources by the Armed Forces, as there have by no means been any circumstances of fraud in Brazilian digital voting machines. When questioned in 2014 by the PSDB, the audit carried out by the get together itself didn’t discover any proof of fraud. This 12 months, a number of entities of Brazilian society, together with a number of the greatest Brazilian universities, audited its supply code and attested to the safety of the system. Due to this fact, the measure is extraordinarily doubtful as to its pertinence.
Additionally, it’s questionable in its legitimacy. Firstly, as a result of the Armed Forces do not need the institutional attribution nor technical competence for this analysis. Secondly, all through Brazilian historical past, the Armed Forces had been liable for institutional violations with drastic penalties, involving murders, torture, imprisonment, exile and financial crises. In different phrases, they aren’t guardians of our democracy. Quite the opposite, they have to be civilly monitored and managed. Thirdly, they aren’t impartial. They’re subordinated to the President of the Republic, who is among the events on this electoral course of. The political character of this demand is expressed in its originality. Over three many years of Brazilian democracy, the Armed Forces have by no means been concerned within the electoral course of, as, as already talked about, it isn’t an institutional attribution. At this second, when they’re subordinated to a politician who questions the electoral system, they resolve to behave. In different phrases, it’s mainly a political motion. Thus, it isn’t applicable for the TSE (Electoral Courtroom) to ask the Armed Forces to affect the electoral course of, going past its attributions associated to logistics and guaranteeing public order. By itself, this interference turns into an element of mistrust, instability and unpredictability within the elections.
In any case, you will need to level out that, if the army makes a parallel estimate of the electoral outcomes, it’s essential to demand civilian management over the method, earlier than, throughout and after the votes. It’s essential to audit the “audit”, appointing representatives of civil society to combine the fee liable for this analysis, ideally forming a majority on this fee, with broad participation, additionally, of representatives from opposition events. As well as, it’s essential to have ample transparency in relation to which army shall be a part of this fee, the choice standards and the definition of every stage of the estimate, with particular consideration to the definition of the poll field pattern.
It’s value emphasizing that, relying on how the polls shall be sampled, it’s attainable to have important distortions in estimated outcomes. Due to this fact, the development of this pattern and of all different phases have to be supervised by our bodies with efficient technical competence, such because the Federal Statistical Council and the Brazilian Affiliation of Political Science, and be open to all different civil society entities that want to supervise the work of the army.
In any case, as public officers, all of your actions have to be topic to public scrutiny. With out this, any results of this estimate will be distorted and destined solely to place Brazilian democracy in test, favoring the perpetuation of those that at the moment maintain energy.
Guilherme de Queiroz-Stein is a Bachelor of Financial Sciences, Political Scientist and Researcher on the Institute of Political Science, College of Münster, Germany.
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