With 4 months till Brazil’s 2022 presidential election, the most recent examine by Marcos Coimbra of Vox Populi, taking the common of main election polls, reveals Lula on 53% of legitimate votes and on the right track to take the presidency in first spherical.
One other election ballot aggregator by Estadão newspaper equally confirmed Lula on 52%, 19 factors forward of Bolsonaro and set for an outright victory. There may be up to now no critical statistical corroboration for the “Bolsonaro comeback win” state of affairs that some Anglophone shops, resembling Americas Quarterly, Washington Publish, and the Guardian, have all reported up to now 8 weeks.
By Plinio Teodoro. Initially printed at Revista Forum.
A brand new compilation of knowledge from electoral polls by sociologist Marcos Coimbr, from Vox Populi, reveals that Lula (PT) continues to develop within the common of polls and has reached 53% of legitimate votes in face-to-face surveys till the top of Could. The share reveals a rise of two factors in comparison with the April common .
However, Jair Bolsonaro (PL) dropped two factors and has 31% of the legitimate votes . Ciro Gomes (PDT) received one level and has 8% , the identical share because the sum of the opposite candidates, which fluctuated one level down.
Within the whole votes – with 10% of white, null and undecided votes – Lula grew 3 factors and reached 47%. Bolsonaro saved the 28%, Ciro went from 6% to 7% and the sum of the opposite candidates from 8% to 7%.
Within the common of distant polls, carried out by phone, Lula has 47% of legitimate votes – one level greater than in April – and Bolsonaro maintains 37%. Ciro and the opposite candidates fluctuated from 9% to eight%.
Within the whole votes in any such ballot, Lula remained on 42% and Bolsonaro on 33% in April. Ciro and the opposite candidates fluctuated from 8% to 7%. White, null and undecided rose from 8% to 11%.
Second spherical
In second spherical simulations, Lula totals 61% of legitimate votes in opposition to 39% for Bolsonaro within the common of in-person polls. In whole votes, Lula has 54% in opposition to 34% of the present president, with 11% abstentions.
In phone polls, the PT candidate scores 58% of legitimate votes in opposition to 42% for Bolsonaro. In whole, Lula has 51% in opposition to 37% of the present president, with 12% abstentions.
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