Trump safe after suspected assassination attempt at golf club

Good morning. We have several banking stories to start the week, including more updates on UniCredit’s controversial move on Commerzbank, Russia’s state lenders expanding into occupied parts of Ukraine and European governments selling billions of euros of stocks in bailed-out banks.

But first, we turn to Florida, where Donald Trump was the target of a suspected attempt on his life, just two months after a gunman tried to kill him at a Pennsylvania rally.

Trump is safe after what the FBI is investigating as a potential assassination attempt on the former US president, who was at the golf club near his Mar-a-Lago resort yesterday.

Law enforcement officials have detained a man who they said had been hiding in bushes bordering the Trump International Golf Club. They found an AK-47 style rifle with a scope, two backpacks and a GoPro camera in the bushes.

The potential assassination comes little more than seven weeks before he faces vice-president Kamala Harris in a tense and closely fought presidential election. Here’s what we know so far.

• Harris leads on economy: The Democratic nominee has consolidated her polling lead over Trump on economic issues, according to the latest FT-Michigan Ross poll.

The White House race is in the home straight. Sign up for our US Election Countdown newsletter so you don’t miss any updates. And here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Starmer in Rome: The UK prime minister will meet his Italian counterpart Giorgia Meloni for advice on tackling small-boat migration.

• Murdoch succession: Court hearings over the tycoon’s attempt to wrest control of his empire away from three of his children are set to begin today.

• UN Security Council: The body meets for a briefing on the Middle East, including the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Israeli air strikes killed six UN staff at a school in the territory on Wednesday.

Five more top stories

1. Top German officials were not briefed in advance about an invitation for UniCredit to bid for a government stake in Commerzbank, according to people familiar with the events, despite the move opening the door to a full takeover. JPMorgan Chase bankers who advised Berlin invited UniCredit, creating an impression that the Italian bank’s interest was welcome.

2. Russia is consolidating its hold on newly occupied areas of Ukraine by opening branches of its largest state banks in cities such as Mariupol. Defying western sanctions, Vladimir Putin told state companies this year there was “nothing to fear” by setting up shop in occupied regions, and Sberbank and VTB have begun to heed the call.

• Military briefing: Kyiv’s gamble in Kursk is in question as Russia begins its counteroffensive, with the strategic rewards of the incursion still elusive.

3. Economists expect the US economy to reach a soft landing, according to the most recent Financial Times-Chicago Booth survey. The findings come just days before the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates, and suggest the country’s economy is headed for solid growth, low inflation and healthy employment.

• Fed milestone: After more than a year of keeping borrowing costs high, the bank is set to start a cycle of easing in its momentous meeting this week.

• Gen Z spending: Despite weaknesses, how is the US economy still so strong? A uniquely subsidised generation may be a critical driver of consumption, writes analyst Meredith Whitney.

4. The head of the World Trade Organization has stressed the need for global carbon pricing to prevent “difficult and problematic” trade disputes from environmental measures. The WTO is taking the lead in working for an international carbon pricing system with the IMF, OECD and UN, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told the FT.

5. Asking prices for UK homes rose at twice their long-term average pace this month, as post-election stability and declining mortgage rates helped to fuel a rebound in buyer demand and draw more sellers to the market. Read the full story.

The Big Read

Since returning to office last year, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has already achieved a significant drop in Amazon deforestation and outlined wide-ranging green economy plans for Brazil. But his government’s plan to boost economic growth has created an uneasy tension with the president’s aspirations for global climate leadership, summed up in one word: oil.

We’re also reading . . . 

• Copper crunch: BHP, the world’s largest miner, has warned that the artificial intelligence boom will exacerbate a looming global shortage of the red metal.

• Apollo vs banks: Led by a onetime dealer in death benefit settlements, the asset manager is taking on the biggest traditional lenders in funding highly rated multinationals.

• US chips: Industry is best placed to inform American semiconductor strategy and “outcompete” China, writes former National Security Council official Meghan Harris.

• Rachel Reeves: The most important thing the UK chancellor has to do is explain how her plan for faster growth is going to work, writes Martin Wolf.

Chart of the day

European governments have offloaded more than €16bn of bailed-out bank stocks over the past year, according to an FT analysis, as they seek to draw a line under the long-running effects of the global financial crisis.

Take a break from the news

For 30 years, Lunch with the FT has featured a who’s who of our times: dictators and dissidents, CEOs and communists, philosophers and fraudsters. Henry Mance, the FT’s chief features writer, explains its magic.

Additional contributions from Benjamin Wilhelm