The pace of US economic growth is set to have slowed in the final quarter of 2022, as the Federal Reserve’s aggressive campaign to raise borrowing costs weighed more heavily on consumer spending and business activity.
The world’s largest economy is forecast to have expanded 2.6 per cent on an annualised basis between September and December, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would mark a slowdown from the 3.2 per cent increase registered in the third quarter but still a solid clip given the steps the US central bank has taken so far to damp demand.
Since March, the Fed has raised its policy rate by more than 4 percentage points, repeatedly moving in 0.75 percentage point increments in a bid to catch up to inflation that proved far more intense than expected.
The central bank is now preparing to deliver a quarter-point rate rise at its upcoming gathering next week as it determines how much more to unleash the economy now inflation appears to have peaked. Fed officials broadly back the federal funds rate eclipsing 5 per cent, and for that level to be maintained at least to the end of the year, suggesting further rate rises to come beyond the February decision.
The latest GDP data, due to be released by the commerce department at 8:30am Eastern Time on Thursday, is set to bolster evidence the economy has proven more resilient than expected in the face of substantially higher borrowing costs, while also showing that the Fed’s actions are beginning to have a more notable effect.
Companies across the manufacturing and services sectors have already begun to cut costs, pulling back on new hiring plans and slashing hours for workers. Mass lay-offs have also swept through the technology sector. That has been accompanied by flagging consumer spending, which has helped to ease price pressures.
Many economists expect the US to tip into a recession later this year as the unemployment rate rises from its current 3.5 per cent level to closer to 5 per cent. No Fed official has yet forecasted one, maintaining instead that a “soft landing” can still be achieved.
The official arbiters of a recession, a group of economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research, characterise one as a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months”. They typically look at a range of metrics including monthly jobs growth, consumer spending on goods and services, and industrial production.
A debate raged last year as to whether the US economy was already in a recession, after registering two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP in the first half of 2022. That has long been considered the common criteria for a “technical recession”. However at the time, top policymakers in the Biden administration and at the Federal Reserve said there was overwhelming evidence the US economy was strong.
