Now we’re getting some perception into Russia’s actions over the past three weeks. It now seems that the withdrawal/retreat from Kharkov was a part of a broader plan that’s going to culminate within the referenda by the oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson beginning this Friday. This isn’t some final minute, determined stunt. It flows logically from Russia’s try to make use of the Particular Navy Operation as leverage to compel critical negotiations on the futures and independence of Donetsk and Luhansk.
There’s some nice commentary on this. I counsel you watch at the least one of many following from the boys at Duran or Andrei Martyanov:
The referenda are a part of a dance with Russian regulation. Russia’s Duma has met and handed laws that can govern how new territories, together with their residents, are admitted into the Russian Republic. I need to emphasize that the choice to carry the referenda this week was made some weeks in the past. Ukraine’s continued shelling of civilians within the Donbas made this transfer an crucial.
As soon as the votes are accomplished and the outcomes introduced, the following transfer will likely be Russia’s–i.e., welcoming the previous Ukrainian oblasts into the Russian Republic. As soon as they’re admitted, any additional assault by Ukraine on these territories will likely be an act of conflict towards Russia. Putin has made it very clear that he’ll act towards any nation waging conflict towards Russia and its residents. This transfer is placing america and NATO on discover. In the event that they proceed to allow Ukrainian assaults on Russian residents then they are going to be focused in response.
We’re crossing a threshold that might escalate into World Struggle III. I’m sure that Vladimir Putin just isn’t taking part in video games. He isn’t Joe Biden. He doesn’t communicate foolishly off-the cuff nor does he make idle threats. From the Russian perspective, Russia’s very existence is at stake.
This could sober the west up, however that’s unlikely. France’s Macron was first out of the gate as we speak issuing empty threats towards Russia. Biden’s White Home was shut behind. Howls of concern. However Russia not cares. It has watched the west play the mute over the past 8 years whereas the democratically elected President of Ukraine was pressured from workplace (with the lively backing of UK and US officers) and whereas Ukraine subsequently killed 1000’s of males, ladies and youngsters within the Donbas. The west was fairly clear–it didn’t care.
Washington and NATO have shot their wad and haven’t any credible standard army drive to counter Russia accepting the outcomes of the referenda. Their solely different past throwing a tantrum is to threaten using nuclear weapons.
Regardless of the potential peril of this second, I’m amused by the irony of america, the UK and France feigning ethical outrage over the Russian’s willingness to just accept the outcomes of the votes by residents of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Did america maintain a referendum when it took Hawaii or Mexican territory? Did the UK enable the American colonies a referendum after they wished their independence? Hell, go down the record of British colonies that have been taken by drive with out the natives of these international locations being given an opportunity to vote to “be a part of” the UK. Ditto for France. I don’t recall them holding an election after they took over Vietnam. It was solely when the North Vietnamese held a “vote” at Dien Bien Phu that France “determined” to just accept the need of the individuals.
Not like america and the previous international colonial powers, Russia is letting the individuals within the besieged Ukrainian oblasts determine. We live by means of consequential historical past. This can be a true recreation changer.
One closing level. If China backs Russia on this transfer it’s probably that Russia has present China with ensures that Moscow will assist Beijing when it strikes towards Taiwan. We will see.
